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高估自己的经济实力,西方才真正被制裁了

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发表于 2022-6-3 08:54:40 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
阿诺德·贝特朗:制裁俄国,西方可能力不从心2022-06-03 07:44:31
来源:观察者网阅读 90958

【导读】 在线杂志《Tablet》近日发表文章,阐述西方对俄制裁实际上孤立了自己,因为他们低估了俄罗斯经济的规模和重要性。

观察者网此前在新闻中介绍了部分内容,现翻译全文,以飨读者。


【文/阿诺德·贝特朗 译/ 观察者网 余烈】
还记得有人声称俄罗斯的经济或多或少是无关紧要的,只是相当于一个不怎么起眼的欧洲小国吗?“普京的经济规模相当于意大利,”美国参议员林赛·格雷厄姆在2014年俄罗斯入侵克里米亚后说,“他正在用一对2玩扑克牌游戏,而且打赢了。”
对于俄罗斯在欧洲、中东和东亚日益增长的外交和地缘政治影响力,《经济学人》在2019年发出疑问:“一个经济规模与西班牙相当的国家……是如何做到这些的?”
西方很少会如此严重地误判一个经济体的全球意义。法国经济学家雅克·萨皮尔(Jacques Sapir)是著名的俄罗斯经济专家,他在莫斯科和巴黎经济学院任教,他最近解释说,乌克兰战争“让我们意识到,俄罗斯经济比我们想象的要重要得多。”
在萨皮尔看来,这种误判的一个重要原因是汇率。如果你简单地将俄罗斯GDP从卢布转换为美元来进行比较,你确实会认为它是一个与西班牙一样大的经济体。但是,如果不对购买力平价进行调整,这样的比较是没有意义的,购买力平价说明了生产力和生活水平,从而说明了人均福利和资源的使用。事实上,购买力平价是大多数国际机构(从国际货币基金组织到经合组织)所青睐的衡量标准。
而当你根据购买力平价衡量俄罗斯GDP时,很明显,俄罗斯的经济实际上更像德国的规模,俄罗斯约为4.4万亿美元,而德国为4.6万亿美元。从一个小的、有点病态的欧洲经济体的规模到欧洲最大的经济体和世界最大的经济体之一,这不是一个可以忽略的差距。
萨皮尔还鼓励我们追问:“服务部门的份额与产品和工业部门的份额相比是多少?”在他看来,与工业部门和石油、天然气、铜和农产品等商品相比,今天的服务部门被严重高估了。如果我们降低服务业在全球经济中的比例重要性,萨皮尔说,“俄罗斯的经济规模远远大于德国,可能占世界经济的5%或6%”,更像日本而不是西班牙。
20220603025738_38836.jpg
对俄制裁后美国油价上涨(来源:新华社)
这有直观的意义。当处于危急时刻,我们知道为人们提供他们真正需要的东西,如食物和能源,比提供娱乐或金融服务等无形的东西更有价值。当像网飞这样的公司,其市盈率比世界上最大的食品公司雀巢高三倍时,这更可能是市场泡沫的反映,而不是实际情况。网飞是一个杰出的服务业公司,但只要世界上大约有8亿人仍然营养不良,雀巢公司仍然会提供更多的价值。
所有这一切都意味着,目前的乌克兰危机有助于澄清我们的看法,包括理所当然地把现代经济中的那一面看作是“陈旧”的,如工业和商品,其价格今年已经飙升;以及也许高估了服务和“技术”,其价值最近已经崩溃。
俄罗斯经济的规模和重要性因忽视全球贸易流而被进一步扭曲,萨皮尔估计俄罗斯在其中“可能占到15%的份额”。例如,虽然俄罗斯不是世界上最大的石油生产国,但它一直是最大的石油出口国,甚至超过了沙特。许多其他基本产品也是如此,如小麦,这种世界上最重要的粮食作物,俄罗斯控制着小麦全球出口的约19.5%,以及镍(20.4%)、半成品铁(18.8%)、铂金(16.6%)和冷冻鱼肉(11.2%)。
在这么多基本商品的生产中具有如此重要的地位,意味着俄罗斯与地球上其他几个国家一样,在许多方面是全球化生产链的关键。与对伊朗或委内瑞拉这样的国家进行“最大限度的制裁”不同,试图切断俄罗斯与世界市场的联系已经意味着并将可能继续带来全球经济的巨大重组。
现在,拜登总统已经在公开改变美国几十年来对台湾的“战略模糊”政策,值得我们思考的是,当我们摘掉一直以来看待俄罗斯的那副眼镜时,中国的经济会是什么样子。如果我们基于汇率来考察中国经济,比如简单地将中国的GDP从人民币转换为美元,会发现中国约为17.7万亿美元(截至2021年),而美国为23万亿美元,欧盟为17万亿美元。
但是,如果我们按购买力平价调整,我们看到中国经济在2021年达到近27.21万亿美元,而欧盟为20.5万亿美元,美国为23万亿美元。就购买力平价而言,事实上,中国的经济早在六年前就超过了美国的经济。
如果我们降低服务业相对于工业和商品的比例重要性呢?服务业约占中国GDP的53.3%,甚至低于俄罗斯的56.7%。如果我们粗略地将萨皮尔关于非服务部门估值翻倍的比率应用于中国,我们可能不得不考虑,以一种非常真实和相关的方式,按购买力平价计算,中国经济占全球经济的25%到30%左右,而不是目前估计的18%到19%。
这将使中国和俄罗斯的经济合计占全球经济的30%到35%(同样,根据购买力平价和服务部门的高估进行调整)——对于一个看起来越来越专注于使用最大限度的经济制裁,来惩罚“不良行为”,试图实现预期政策结果的跨大西洋共同体来说,这是一个巨大的、或许不可持续的挑战。
当我们考虑到服务业占美国经济的77%和欧盟经济的70%时,这一挑战就变得更加艰巨了——这表明西方的经济实力可能被严重高估,而与中国和俄罗斯的相对经济实力相差甚多。
这些问题有多大意义?首先,乌克兰战争和太平洋地区的紧张局势似乎正在加速将世界分为类似冷战时期的政治和经济集团。但是,在冷战初期,西方国家占全球GDP的50%以上,当时美国在全球制造业中占主导地位,并且每年都有巨大的贸易盈余。今天,西方国家似乎处于更弱的权力地位,而它的主要对手在某些方面比1948年的共产主义集团更强大。
因此,在我们热情地拥抱新的铁幕之前,值得停下来考虑一下,世界上有多少国家会自愿站在我们这边。我们所认为的“西方”国家,除了经济和军事上的纠缠外,由于意识形态和历史原因,无疑会保持相对团结。但西方只占世界人口的13%,中国和俄罗斯加起来约占20%。这使得人类中约有三分之二的人“不结盟”,这是他们中大多数人希望保持的立场。如果我们强迫他们选择一个阵营,我们可能会对许多结果感到震惊。
事实上,对目前参与制裁俄罗斯的国家进行统计,很难说是在我们的对手周围还是在西方本身周围拉起了一道新的铁幕。像印度和沙特这样重要的国家和名义上的美国盟友,拒绝在乌克兰冲突中站队,而且在这方面表现得尤为强烈。
这种动态的一个有说服力的晴雨表是石油。随着西方对这个世界上最大的石油出口国实施石油制裁,可以预见的是,石油价格已经飙升,从年初的每桶75美元左右上升到今天的110美元以上。但是,那些拒绝参与制裁的国家现在正利用这个机会,为俄罗斯的能源输送进行谈判,而且折扣很高。如果俄罗斯仍然能够向全世界出售石油,像印度这样的国家能够以低于市场的价格进行谈判,而西方消费者却被抬高的价格所打击,那么谁才是真正被制裁的对象呢?
类似的原则也适用于美元和整个西方金融体系的武器化。如果非西方国家越来越多地被告知,获得美元和SWIFT等交易系统是以华盛顿的政策为条件的,而这些政策不一定符合它们的自身利益,其结果可能是全球经济的去美元化,而不是西方秩序的加强。
西方有可能在自以为是和满足各种国内需求的情况下,一头扎进这样的未来:使得全球南方和其他许多国家感到压力越来越大、不得不做出他们不想做出的选择。这可能使西方比现代任何时候都更加孤立。
(本文2022年5月24日发表于在线杂志Tablet Magazine,该杂志专注于报道犹太人新闻和文化。)


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 楼主| 发表于 2022-6-3 15:24:51 | 显示全部楼层
What Is Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)?
[size=0.875]By THE INVESTOPEDIA TEAM

Updated March 08, 2022

[size=0.875]Reviewed by MICHAEL J BOYLE[size=0.875]

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[size=0.875]Fact checked by PETE RATHBURN





One popular macroeconomic analysis metric to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries is purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP is an economic theory that compares different countries' currencies through a "basket of goods" approach, not to be confused with the Paycheck Protection Program created by the CARES Act.1



Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2020
According to this concept, two currencies are in equilibrium—known as the currencies being at par—when a basket of goods is priced the same in both countries, taking into account the exchange rates.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a popular metric used by macroeconomic analysts that compares different countries' currencies through a "basket of goods" approach.
  • Purchasing power parity (PPP) allows for economists to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries.
  • Some countries adjust their gross domestic product (GDP) figures to reflect PPP.




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Click Play to Learn How to Calculate Purchasing Power Parity


Calculating Purchasing Power Parity
The relative version of PPP is calculated with the following formula:





\begin{aligned} &S=\frac{P_1}{P_2}\\ &\textbf{where:}\\ &S=\text{ Exchange rate of currency }1\text{ to currency }2\\ &P_1=\text{ Cost of good }X\text{ in currency }1\\ &P_2=\text{ Cost of good }X\text{ in currency }2 \end{aligned}​S=P2​P1​​where:S= Exchange rate of currency 1 to currency 2P1​= Cost of good X in currency 1P2​= Cost of good X in currency 2​
Comparing Nations' Purchasing Power Parity
To make a meaningful comparison of prices across countries, a wide range of goods and services must be considered. However, this one-to-one comparison is difficult to achieve due to the sheer amount of data that must be collected and the complexity of the comparisons that must be drawn. To help facilitate this comparison, the University of Pennsylvania and the United Nations joined forces to establish the International Comparison Program (ICP) in 1968.2

With this program, the PPPs generated by the ICP have a basis from a worldwide price survey that compares the prices of hundreds of various goods and services. The program helps international macroeconomists estimate global productivity and growth.3

Every few years, the World Bank releases a report that compares the productivity and growth of various countries in terms of PPP and U.S. dollars.4 Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) use weights based on PPP metrics to make predictions and recommend economic policy.5 The recommended economic policies can have an immediate short-term impact on financial markets.

Also, some forex traders use PPP to find potentially overvalued or undervalued currencies. Investors who hold stock or bonds of foreign companies may use the survey's PPP figures to predict the impact of exchange-rate fluctuations on a country's economy, and thus the impact on their investment.

Pairing Purchasing Power Parity With Gross Domestic Product
In contemporary macroeconomics, gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the total monetary value of the goods and services produced within one country. Nominal GDP calculates the monetary value in current, absolute terms. Real GDP adjusts the nominal gross domestic product for inflation.

However, some accounting goes even further, adjusting GDP for the PPP value. This adjustment attempts to convert nominal GDP into a number more easily comparable between countries with different currencies.

To better understand how GDP paired with purchase power parity works, suppose it costs $10 to buy a shirt in the U.S., and it costs €8.00 to buy an identical shirt in Germany. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, we must first convert the €8.00 into U.S. dollars. If the exchange rate was such that the shirt in Germany costs $15.00, the PPP would, therefore, be 15/10, or 1.5.

In other words, for every $1.00 spent on the shirt in the U.S., it takes $1.50 to obtain the same shirt in Germany buying it with the euro.

GDP by Purchasing Power Parity vs Nominal GDP

Drawbacks of Purchasing Power Parity
Since 1986, The Economist has playfully tracked the price of McDonald's Corp.’s (MCD) Big Mac hamburger across many countries. Their study results in the famed "Big Mac Index". In "Burgernomics"—a prominent 2003 paper that explores the Big Mac Index and PPP—authors Michael R. Pakko and Patricia S. Pollard cited the following factors to explain why the purchasing power parity theory is not a good reflection of reality.6

Transport Costs
Goods that are unavailable locally must be imported, resulting in transport costs. These costs include not only fuel but import duties as well. Imported goods will consequently sell at a relatively higher price than do identical locally sourced goods.7

Tax Differences
Government sales taxes such as the value-added tax (VAT) can spike prices in one country, relative to another.7

Government Intervention
Tariffs can dramatically augment the price of imported goods, where the same products in other countries will be comparatively cheaper.7

Non-Traded Services
The Big Mac's price factors input costs that are not traded. These factors include such items as insurance, utility costs, and labor costs. Therefore, those expenses are unlikely to be at parity internationally.7

Market Competition
Goods might be deliberately priced higher in a country. In some cases, higher prices are because a company may have a competitive advantage over other sellers. The company may have a monopoly or be part of a cartel of companies that manipulate prices, keeping them artificially high.8

The Bottom Line
While it's not a perfect measurement metric, purchase power parity does allow for the possibility of comparing pricing between countries that have differing currencies.

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发表于 2022-6-3 17:11:58 | 显示全部楼层
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