芯片战争现在是中国的爱国战争

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科技之战事关北京的经济生存，但对美国政客和技术官僚来说只是另一场选择的“战争”。很容易预测哪一方更愿意获胜。


中国一家领先的电信公司发布了一款新智能手机，白宫国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文在新闻发布会上被要求对美国的战略应对计划发表评论。

是只有我一个人觉得这样的景象还是其他人也觉得有些可笑？无论如何，沙利文表示，美国需要对华为技术公司的新型手机芯片进行精确的技术细节分析。

沙利文周二在白宫简报会上表示：“在我们获得有关其特性和成分的更多信息之前，我将不对所涉及的特定芯片发表评论。”

“无论如何，它告诉我们的是，美国应该继续实行‘小院子、高围栏’的一系列技术限制，主要关注国家安全问题，而不是更广泛的商业脱钩问题。”

“性质和构成”……“国家安全担忧”——在冷战时期，如果苏联刚刚测试了一种新型核弹，就会出现这种反应。

正如许多评论家所观察到的那样，华为在美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多高调访华期间发布其最新手机绝非偶然。

它的Mate 60 Pro搭载了新的Kirin 9000s芯片，该芯片的处理器运行在7纳米技术上，这正是华盛顿想要拒绝中国使用的那种先进芯片。

这款新手机一直热销。它在全国范围内激起了爱国热情和热情，不是因为消费者买不到类似的5G手机，而是因为它是华为制造的。华为零部件供应商的股价大幅上涨，专门追踪中国顶级芯片制造商的指数跑赢大盘近10%。

这正是中国领导人一生中最喜欢的——商业高科技的成功，激发民族主义，同时提振股市——并将其坚持给美国人。这也表明了芯片大战的走向。

在中美之间这场隐喻性的科技战争中，中国必将获胜。原因很简单。中国人输不起，但美国人可以。这意味着中国有无限的战斗意志并实现技术独立。很简单，其他一切——人工智能、量子计算、6G+电信——都依赖于这一单一技术。中国希望在本世纪余下的时间里实现高科技国家的领先地位。芯片大战有点像上次的太空技术竞赛。

尽管弗拉基米尔·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 经常对西方发表好战言论和行动，早在 2014 年入侵和吞并克里米亚之前，美国就很高兴与俄罗斯在太空项目上进行合作，包括国际空间站 (ISS) 上的联合项目，即使在今天。然而，它拒绝与中国航天机构合作，并禁止中国宇航员访问国际空间站。

中国人做了什么？他们建造了自己的空间站，并计划载人登月，甚至可能前往火星。

芯片战确实事关中国的国家安全，甚至是生存。然而，对于美国来说，无论其领导人多么想做出相反的声明，这实际上都与两者无关。

华盛顿可能会假装拒绝向中国提供最先进的芯片完全与美国的国家安全有关。毕竟，它甚至推出了国家安全顾问来对最新的 Mate 60 Pro 进行武断。想象一下，如果北京派出一位高级将军来评论最新款 iPhone 的安全威胁！

当然，除了最愚蠢、最容易上当受骗的人之外，没有人会相信这一点。美国的危言耸听只适用于最广泛的安全定义，即一种典型的夸大安全主张，根据这种主张，不友好国家的任何进步都构成对美国国家利益或安全的威胁。

也许有人会说，中国的科技进步违背了美国的国家利益。但这实际上与安全或生存无关。事实上，美国国内科技巨头和外国盟友没有胃口进行这场战斗，他们从一开始就认识到，随着华盛顿发动芯片战争，真正付出代价的将是他们。为自由世界的生存而战是一回事，而为了美国高度不稳定的领导人在任何时刻声称的任何战略利益而牺牲则是另一回事。

如果我们用战争来类比芯片“战争”，美国是可以输得起的，就像它在伊拉克和阿富汗的“反恐战争”中输掉的高昂代价一样。它只会继续打下一场战争，无论是隐喻的还是实际的。

战争类比还有一个推论。必然的战争是全民参与的战争。公民必须感到他们在这场斗争中拥有最大的利益。

华为新手机所激发的爱国热情恰恰说明了这一点；许多中国人认为，反击美国对中国的芯片侵略对他们来说至关重要。但情况会变得更好。他们没有被征召参加战争。

中国年轻人总是喜欢购买最新的科技产品。他们本能地将购买华为最新款手机等同于爱国主义。最好的爱国行为是那些不需要牺牲而需要即时满足的行为。谁不喜欢一款最先进的 5G 设备，它与任何 iPhone 一样好，但价格却只有 iPhone 的一小部分？更何况，你还把它强加给美国人。

自从美国在2019年首次对华为实施芯片禁令，并试图以可疑的罪名逮捕其二号人物以来，华盛顿一直想消灭它，以阻止中国的5G网络接入世界其他地区。事实证明这只是一个白日梦。

出于相反的原因，无论华为在中国高科技生态系统中已经发挥了怎样的卓越地位，中国政府都必须确保其生存和繁荣，关系到国家声誉。

套用约翰·肯尼迪的名言，对于今天爱国的中国消费者来说，不要问华为能卖给你什么，而要问你能从华为那里买到什么。

（谷歌翻译：The chip war is now a patriotic war for China）

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POLITICS
The chip war is now a patriotic war for China
By Alex Lo
Sep 11, 2023
China Vs America Chip war.
The tech fight is about economic survival for Beijing, but just another ‘war’ of choice for US politicians and technocrats. It’s easy to predict which side has the greater will to prevail.

A leading Chinese telecoms company released a new smartphone and no less than the White House’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was asked at a press conference to comment on America’s plan for a strategic response.

Is it just me or do others also find that a somewhat ridiculous spectacle? In any case, Sullivan said the US needed to analyse Huawei Technologies’ new phone chip in precise technical details.

“I’m going to withhold comment on the particular chip in question until we get more information about precisely its character and composition,” Sullivan told a White House briefing on Tuesday.

“What it tells us, regardless, is that the United States should continue on its course of a ‘small yard, high fence’ set of technology restrictions focused narrowly on national security concerns, not on the broader question of commercial decoupling.”

“Character and composition” … “national security concerns” – in the old Cold War days, that kind of response would have been if the Soviets had just tested a new type of nuclear bomb.

As many commentators have observed, it was no accident that Huawei released its latest phone during US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s high-profile mission to China.

Its Mate 60 Pro is powered by the new Kirin 9000s chip whose processor runs on the 7 nanometre technology, precisely the kind of advanced chips that Washington wants to deny China.

The new phone has been selling like hot cakes. It has generated patriotic fervour and enthusiasm across the country not because consumers can’t buy comparable 5G phones, but because it’s made by Huawei. Shares of Huawei’s component suppliers have shot up, with an index that specialises in tracking China’s top chip makers outstripping the broader equities by almost 10 per cent.

It’s exactly what Chinese leaders love the most in life – a commercial hi-tech success that inspires nationalism while boosting the stock market – and sticking it to the Americans. It’s also indicative of where the chip war is going.

In this metaphorical tech war between the US and China, China is bound to win. There is a simple reason for that. The Chinese can’t afford to lose, but the Americans can. This means China has an unbounded will to fight and achieve technical independence. Quite simply, everything else – artificial intelligence, quantum computing, 6G+ telecommunications – all depend on this single technology. On it rests China’s hope to achieve hi-tech pre-eminence as a nation for the rest of this century. The chip war is a bit like the last space tech competition.

Despite Vladimir Putin’s frequent belligerent statements and actions against the West, well before his invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014, the US was happy to cooperate with Russia over space projects, including joint projects on board the International Space Station (ISS), even today. Yet, it refused cooperation with China’s space agencies and banned Chinese astronauts from ever visiting the ISS.

What did the Chinese do? They have built their own space station and are planning manned missions to the moon, perhaps even to Mars.

The chip war really is about China’s national security, if not survival. For the US, though, it is really about neither, however much its leaders want to claim otherwise.

Washington may pretend denying the most advanced chips to China is all to do with the US’ national security. After all, it even rolls out the national security adviser to pontificate on the latest Mate 60 Pro. Imagine if Beijing wheeled out a top general to comment on the latest iPhone as a security threat!

No one would be convinced, of course, except the most foolish and gullible. US alarmism only holds by the broadest definition of security, the kind of typically exaggerated security claims according to which any advance made by an unfriendly state amounts to a threat to the US’ national interests or security.

Perhaps it may be argued that China’s tech advances are against America’s national interests. But that’s not really about security or survival. In fact, US’ domestic tech giants and foreign allies have no stomach for the fight, recognising from the start that as Washington prosecutes its chip war, it’s they who will actually be paying the price. It’s one thing fighting for the survival of the free world, something else to be sacrificed for whatever strategic interests America’s highly erratic leaders claim at any one moment.

If we apply the analogy of war to the chip “war”, the US can afford to lose, the same way it has paid for the high price of losing “the war on terror” in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will just move on to fight the next war, metaphorical or actual.

There is also a corollary to the war analogy. A war of necessity is a war that will have to involve the whole people. Citizens must feel they have the highest stake in the fight.

The patriotic fervour inspired by Huawei’s new phone shows precisely that; many Chinese people think they have a high stake in countering America’s chip aggression against their country. But it gets better. They are not being drafted into fighting a war.

Younger Chinese always love buying the latest tech gadget. They instinctively equate buying Huawei’s latest phone with patriotism. The best patriotic acts are those that don’t require sacrifice but instant gratification. Who doesn’t like a state-of-the-art 5G device that’s as good as any iPhone but costs only a fraction of the price? What’s more, you are sticking it to the Americans.

Ever since America first imposed a chip ban on Huawei in 2019 and sought to arrest its No 2 on dubious charges, Washington has wanted to kill it off to deny China’s 5G network access to the rest of the world. That is turning out to be a pipe dream.

For the opposite reason, whatever pre-eminence Huawei may have already played in China’s hi-tech ecosystem, the Chinese state must make sure it survives and prospers as a matter of national prestige.

To rephrase John F. Kennedy’s famous saying, for patriotic Chinese consumers today, ask not what Huawei can sell to you, but what you can buy from Huawei.



Original article published in South China Morning Post on 7 September, 2023.